涓€銆佷腑鍦嬪埗閫犳キ(y猫)閲囪臣缍�(j墨ng)鐞嗘寚鏁�(sh霉)閬嬭鎯呮硜

2019骞�12鏈堜唤锛屼腑鍦嬪埗閫犳キ(y猫)閲囪臣缍�(j墨ng)鐞嗘寚鏁�(sh霉)(PMI)鐐�50.2%锛岃垏涓婃湀鎸佸钩銆�

寰炰紒妤�(y猫)瑕�(gu墨)?锛熺煑顑忕鎺ㄩI(y猫)PMI鐐�50.6%锛屾瘮涓婃湀鍥炶惤0.3鍊嬬櫨鍒嗛粸锛屼腑鍨嬩紒妤�(y猫)PMI鐐�51.4%锛屾瘮涓婃湀涓婂崌1.9鍊嬬櫨鍒嗛粸锛屽ぇ銆佷腑鍨嬩紒妤�(y猫)PMI鍧囦綅浜庤嚚鐣岄粸涔嬩笂; 灏忓瀷浼佹キ(y猫)PMI鐐�47.2%锛屾瘮涓婃湀涓嬮檷2.2鍊嬬櫨鍒嗛粸锛屼綅浜庤嚚鐣岄粸涔嬩笅銆�

寰炲垎椤炴寚鏁�(sh霉)鐪�锛屽湪妲�(g貌u)鎴愬埗閫犳キ(y猫)PMI鐨�5鍊嬪垎椤炴寚鏁�(sh霉)涓�锛岀敓鐢�(ch菐n)鎸囨暩(sh霉)銆佹柊瑷傚柈鎸囨暩(sh霉)鍜屼緵鎳�(y墨ng)鍟嗛厤閫佹檪闁撴寚鏁�(sh霉)楂樹簬鑷ㄧ晫榛烇紝鍘熸潗鏂欏韩瀛樻寚鏁�(sh霉)鍜屽緸妤�(y猫)浜哄摗鎸囨暩(sh霉)浣庝簬鑷ㄧ晫榛�銆�

鐢熺敘(ch菐n)鎸囨暩(sh霉)鐐�53.2%锛屾瘮涓婃湀涓婂崌0.6鍊嬬櫨鍒嗛粸锛岀辜绾�(x霉)浣嶄簬鑷ㄧ晫榛炰箣涓婏紝琛ㄦ槑鍒堕€犳キ(y猫)浼佹キ(y猫)鐢熺敘(ch菐n)鎿村嫉鎸佺簩(x霉)鍔犲揩銆�

鏂拌▊鍠寚鏁�(sh霉)鐐�51.2%锛屾瘮涓婃湀寰惤0.1鍊嬬櫨鍒嗛粸锛岄€ｇ簩(x霉)鍏╁€嬫湀浣嶄簬鑷ㄧ晫榛炰箣涓�锛岃〃鏄庡埗閫犳キ(y猫)甯傚牬闇€姹傜辜绾�(x霉)澧為暦銆�

鍘熸潗鏂欏韩瀛樻寚鏁�(sh霉)鐐�47.2%锛屾瘮涓婃湀涓嬮檷0.6鍊嬬櫨鍒嗛粸锛屼綅浜庤嚚鐣岄粸涔嬩笅锛岃〃鏄庡埗閫犳キ(y猫)涓昏鍘熸潗鏂欏韩瀛橀噺娓涘皯銆�

寰炴キ(y猫)浜哄摗鎸囨暩(sh霉)鐐�47.3%锛岃垏涓婃湀鎸佸钩锛岃〃鏄庡埗閫犳キ(y猫)浼佹キ(y猫)鐢ㄥ伐鏅埃搴︾┅(w臎n)瀹�銆�

渚涙噳(y墨ng)鍟嗛厤閫佹檪闁撴寚鏁�(sh霉)鐐�51.1%锛屾瘮涓婃湀涓婂崌0.6鍊嬬櫨鍒嗛粸锛屼綅浜庤嚚鐣岄粸涔嬩笂锛岃〃鏄庡埗閫犳キ(y猫)鍘熸潗鏂欎緵鎳�(y墨ng)鍟嗕氦璨ㄦ檪闁撳姞蹇€�

浜�銆佷腑鍦嬮潪鍒堕€犳キ(y猫)閲囪臣缍�(j墨ng)鐞嗘寚鏁�(sh霉)閬嬭鎯呮硜

2019骞�12鏈堜唤锛岄潪鍒堕€犳キ(y猫)鍟嗗嫏(w霉)娲诲嫊鎸囨暩(sh霉)鐐�53.5%锛屾瘮涓婃湀鍥炶惤0.9鍊嬬櫨鍒嗛粸锛岃〃鏄庨潪鍒堕€犳キ(y猫)绺介珨淇濇寔鎿村嫉鎱�(t脿i)鍕�锛屽閫熸湁鎵€鏀剧珐銆�

鍒嗚妤�(y猫)鐪�锛屾湇鍕�(w霉)妤�(y猫)鍟嗗嫏(w霉)娲诲嫊鎸囨暩(sh霉)鐐�53.0%锛屾瘮涓婃湀鍥炶惤0.5鍊嬬櫨鍒嗛粸銆傚緸琛屾キ(y猫)澶ч鐪嬶紝閻佃矾閬嬭几妤�(y猫)銆佷綇瀹挎キ(y猫)銆侀浕淇″唬鎾浕瑕栧拰琛�(w猫i)鏄熷偝杓告湇鍕�(w霉)銆佷簰鑱�(li谩n)缍�(w菐ng)杌熶欢淇℃伅鎶€琛�(sh霉)鏈嶅嫏(w霉)銆侀噾铻嶆キ(y猫)銆佺璩冨強鍟嗗嫏(w霉)鏈嶅嫏(w霉)妤�(y猫)绛夎妤�(y猫)鍟嗗嫏(w霉)娲诲嫊鎸囨暩(sh霉)浣嶄簬55.0%浠ヤ笂锛屾キ(y猫)鍕�(w霉)娲诲嫊杓冪偤娲昏簫;鎵圭櫦(f膩)妤�(y猫)銆佹埧鍦扮敘(ch菐n)妤�(y猫)绛夎妤�(y猫)鍟嗗嫏(w霉)娲诲嫊鎸囨暩(sh霉)浣嶄簬鏀剁府鍗€(q奴)闁撱€傚缓绛戞キ(y猫)鍟嗗嫏(w霉)娲诲嫊鎸囨暩(sh霉)鐐�56.7%锛屾瘮涓婃湀鍥炶惤2.9鍊嬬櫨鍒嗛粸锛岀辜绾�(x霉)淇濇寔杓冮珮鏅埃姘村钩銆�

鏂拌▊鍠寚鏁�(sh霉)鐐�50.4%锛屾瘮涓婃湀鍥炶惤0.9鍊嬬櫨鍒嗛粸锛屼綅浜庤嚚鐣岄粸涔嬩笂銆傚垎琛屾キ(y猫)鐪嬶紝鏈嶅嫏(w霉)妤�(y猫)鏂拌▊鍠寚鏁�(sh霉)鐐�50.0%锛屾瘮涓婃湀鍥炶惤0.5鍊嬬櫨鍒嗛粸;寤虹瓚妤�(y猫)鏂拌▊鍠寚鏁�(sh霉)鐐�52.9%锛屾瘮涓婃湀鍥炶惤3.1鍊嬬櫨鍒嗛粸銆�

鎶曞叆鍝佸児鏍兼寚鏁�(sh霉)鐐�52.4%锛屾瘮涓婃湀鍥炶惤0.8鍊嬬櫨鍒嗛粸锛屼綅浜庤嚚鐣岄粸涔嬩笂锛岃〃鏄庨潪鍒堕€犳キ(y猫)浼佹キ(y猫)鐢ㄤ簬缍�(j墨ng)鐕熸椿鍕曠殑鎶曞叆鍝佸児鏍肩附楂旀按骞虫疾骞呮敹绐�銆傚垎琛屾キ(y猫)鐪�锛屾湇鍕�(w霉)妤�(y猫)鎶曞叆鍝佸児鏍兼寚鏁�(sh霉)鐐�52.3%锛屾瘮涓婃湀鍥炶惤0.3鍊嬬櫨鍒嗛粸;寤虹瓚妤�(y猫)鎶曞叆鍝佸児鏍兼寚鏁�(sh霉)鐐�53.0%锛屾瘮涓婃湀鍥炶惤3.3鍊嬬櫨鍒嗛粸銆�

閵峰敭鍍规牸鎸囨暩(sh霉)鐐�50.3%锛岄洊姣斾笂鏈堝洖钀�1.0鍊嬬櫨鍒嗛粸锛屼絾浠嶄綅浜庤嚚鐣岄粸涔嬩笂锛岃〃鏄庨潪鍒堕€犳キ(y猫)閵峰敭鍍规牸绺介珨姘村钩杓冧笂鏈堝皬骞呬笂婕层€傚垎琛屾キ(y猫)鐪�锛屾湇鍕�(w霉)妤�(y猫)閵峰敭鍍规牸鎸囨暩(sh霉)鐐�49.9%锛屾瘮涓婃湀涓嬮檷1.2鍊嬬櫨鍒嗛粸;寤虹瓚妤�(y猫)閵峰敭鍍规牸鎸囨暩(sh霉)鐐�52.2%锛屾瘮涓婃湀鍥炶惤0.4鍊嬬櫨鍒嗛粸銆�

寰炴キ(y猫)浜哄摗鎸囨暩(sh霉)鐐�48.3%锛屾瘮涓婃湀涓嬮檷0.7鍊嬬櫨鍒嗛粸锛屼綅浜庤嚚鐣岄粸涔嬩笅銆傚垎琛屾キ(y猫)鐪�锛屾湇鍕�(w霉)妤�(y猫)寰炴キ(y猫)浜哄摗鎸囨暩(sh霉)鐐�47.9%锛屾瘮涓婃湀寰崌0.1鍊嬬櫨鍒嗛粸;寤虹瓚妤�(y猫)寰炴キ(y猫)浜哄摗鎸囨暩(sh霉)鐐�50.7%锛屾瘮涓婃湀鍥炶惤4.8鍊嬬櫨鍒嗛粸銆�

妤�(y猫)鍕�(w霉)娲诲嫊闋�(y霉)鏈熸寚鏁�(sh霉)鐐�59.1%锛岄洊姣斾笂鏈堝洖钀�1.9鍊嬬櫨鍒嗛粸锛屼絾浠嶄綅浜庤純楂樻櫙姘ｅ崁(q奴)闁�锛岃〃鏄庨潪鍒堕€犳キ(y猫)浼佹キ(y猫)灏嶆湭渚嗗競鍫寸櫦(f膩)灞曟瘮杓冩▊瑙€銆傚垎琛屾キ(y猫)鐪嬶紝鏈嶅嫏(w霉)妤�(y猫)妤�(y猫)鍕�(w霉)娲诲嫊闋�(y霉)鏈熸寚鏁�(sh霉)鐐�59.1%锛屾瘮涓婃湀鍥炶惤1.5鍊嬬櫨鍒嗛粸;寤虹瓚妤�(y猫)妤�(y猫)鍕�(w霉)娲诲嫊闋�(y霉)鏈熸寚鏁�(sh霉)鐐�59.2%锛屾瘮涓婃湀鍥炶惤3.9鍊嬬櫨鍒嗛粸銆�

涓�銆佷腑鍦嬬稖鍚圥MI鐢�(ch菐n)鍑烘寚鏁�(sh霉)閬嬭鎯呮硜

2019骞�12鏈堜唤锛岀稖鍚圥MI鐢�(ch菐n)鍑烘寚鏁�(sh霉)鐐�53.4%锛屾瘮涓婃湀鍥炶惤0.3鍊嬬櫨鍒嗛粸锛岀辜绾�(x霉)浣嶄簬鑷ㄧ晫榛炰箣涓�锛岃〃鏄庢垜鍦嬩紒妤�(y猫)鐢熺敘(ch菐n)缍�(j墨ng)鐕熸椿鍕曠附楂斾繚鎸佹摯寮垫厠(t脿i)鍕�銆�

闄勬敞

1.涓昏鎸囨(bi膩o)瑙ｉ噵

閲囪臣缍�(j墨ng)鐞嗘寚鏁�(sh霉)(PMI)锛屾槸閫氶亷灏嶄紒妤�(y猫)閲囪臣缍�(j墨ng)鐞嗙殑鏈堝害瑾�(di脿o)鏌ョ祼(ji茅)鏋滅当(t菕ng)瑷堝尟绺�銆佺法鍒惰€屾垚鐨勬寚鏁�(sh霉)锛屽畠娑佃搵浜嗕紒妤�(y猫)閲囪臣銆佺敓鐢�(ch菐n)銆佹祦閫氱瓑鍚勫€嬬挵(hu谩n)绡€(ji茅)锛屽寘鎷埗閫犳キ(y猫)鍜岄潪鍒堕€犳キ(y猫)闋�(l菒ng)鍩燂紝鏄湅闅涗笂閫氱敤鐨勭洠(ji膩n)娓畯瑙€缍�(j墨ng)婵熻蛋鍕㈢殑鍏堣鎬ф寚鏁�(sh霉)涔嬩竴锛屽叿鏈夎純寮风殑闋�(y霉)娓�銆侀爯(y霉)璀︿綔鐢�銆傜稖鍚圥MI鐢�(ch菐n)鍑烘寚鏁�(sh霉)鏄疨MI鎸囨(bi膩o)楂旂郴涓弽鏄犵暥(d膩ng)鏈熷叏琛屾キ(y猫)(鍒堕€犳キ(y猫)鍜岄潪鍒堕€犳キ(y猫))鐢�(ch菐n)鍑鸿畩鍖栨儏娉佺殑缍滃悎鎸囨暩(sh霉)銆侾MI閫氬父浠�50%浣滅偤缍�(j墨ng)婵熷挤寮辩殑鍒嗙晫榛�锛孭MI楂樹簬50%鏅傦紝鍙嶆槧缍�(j墨ng)婵熺附楂旀摯寮�;浣庝簬50%锛屽墖鍙嶆槧缍�(j墨ng)婵熺附楂旀敹绺�銆�

2.瑾�(di脿o)鏌ヨ寖鍦�

娑夊強銆婂湅姘戠稉(j墨ng)婵熻妤�(y猫)鍒嗛銆�(GB/T4754-2017)涓埗閫犳キ(y猫)鐨�31鍊嬭妤�(y猫)澶ч锛�3000瀹惰(di脿o)鏌ユǎ鏈�;闈炲埗閫犳キ(y猫)鐨�37鍊嬭妤�(y猫)澶ч锛�4000瀹惰(di脿o)鏌ユǎ鏈�銆�

3.瑾�(di脿o)鏌ユ柟娉�

閲囪臣缍�(j墨ng)鐞嗚(di脿o)鏌ラ噰鐢≒PS(Probability Proportional to Size)鎶芥ǎ鏂规硶锛屼互鍒堕€犳キ(y猫)鎴栭潪鍒堕€犳キ(y猫)琛屾キ(y猫)澶ч鐐哄堡锛岃妤�(y猫)妯ｆ湰閲忔寜鍏跺鍔犲€煎崰鍏ㄩ儴鍒堕€犳キ(y猫)鎴栭潪鍒堕€犳キ(y猫)澧炲姞鍊肩殑姣旈噸鍒嗛厤锛屽堡鍏�(n猫i)妯ｆ湰浣跨敤鑸囦紒妤�(y猫)涓荤嚐妤�(y猫)鍕�(w霉)鏀跺叆鎴愭瘮渚嬬殑姒傜巼鎶藉彇銆�

鏈(di脿o)鏌ョ敱鍦嬪绲�(t菕ng)瑷堝眬鐩村爆瑾�(di脿o)鏌ラ殜鍏烽珨绲勭箶瀵︽柦锛屽埄鐢ㄥ湅瀹剁当(t菕ng)瑷堣伅(li谩n)缍�(w菐ng)鐩村牨绯荤当(t菕ng)灏嶄紒妤�(y猫)閲囪臣缍�(j墨ng)鐞嗛€茶鏈堝害鍟忓嵎瑾�(di脿o)鏌�銆�

4.瑷堢畻鏂规硶

(1)鍒嗛鎸囨暩(sh霉)鐨勮▓绠楁柟娉�銆傚埗閫犳キ(y猫)閲囪臣缍�(j墨ng)鐞嗚(di脿o)鏌ユ寚妯�(bi膩o)楂旂郴鍖呮嫭鐢熺敘(ch菐n)銆佹柊瑷傚柈銆佹柊鍑哄彛瑷傚柈銆佸湪鎵嬭▊鍠�銆佺敘(ch菐n)鎴愬搧搴瓨銆侀噰璩奸噺銆侀€插彛銆佷富瑕佸師鏉愭枡璩奸€插児鏍�銆佸嚭寤犲児鏍�銆佸師鏉愭枡搴瓨銆佸緸妤�(y猫)浜哄摗銆佷緵鎳�(y墨ng)鍟嗛厤閫佹檪闁�銆佺敓鐢�(ch菐n)缍�(j墨ng)鐕熸椿鍕曢爯(y霉)鏈熺瓑13鍊嬪垎椤炴寚鏁�(sh霉)銆傞潪鍒堕€犳キ(y猫)閲囪臣缍�(j墨ng)鐞嗚(di脿o)鏌ユ寚妯�(bi膩o)楂旂郴鍖呮嫭鍟嗗嫏(w霉)娲诲嫊銆佹柊瑷傚柈銆佹柊鍑哄彛瑷傚柈銆佸湪鎵嬭▊鍠�銆佸瓨璨�銆佹姇鍏ュ搧鍍规牸銆侀姺鍞児鏍�銆佸緸妤�(y猫)浜哄摗銆佷緵鎳�(y墨ng)鍟嗛厤閫佹檪闁�銆佹キ(y猫)鍕�(w霉)娲诲嫊闋�(y霉)鏈熺瓑10鍊嬪垎椤炴寚鏁�(sh霉)銆傚垎椤炴寚鏁�(sh霉)閲囩敤鎿存暎鎸囨暩(sh霉)瑷堢畻鏂规硶锛屽嵆姝ｅ悜鍥炵瓟鐨勪紒妤�(y猫)鍊嬫暩(sh霉)鐧惧垎姣斿姞涓婂洖绛斾笉璁婄殑鐧惧垎姣旂殑涓€鍗娿€傜敱浜庨潪鍒堕€犳キ(y猫)娌掓湁鍚堟垚鎸囨暩(sh霉)锛屽湅闅涗笂閫氬父鐢ㄥ晢鍕�(w霉)娲诲嫊鎸囨暩(sh霉)鍙嶆槧闈炲埗閫犳キ(y猫)缍�(j墨ng)婵熺櫦(f膩)灞曠殑绺介珨璁婂寲鎯呮硜銆�

(2)鍒堕€犳キ(y猫)PMI鎸囨暩(sh霉)鐨勮▓绠楁柟娉�銆傚埗閫犳キ(y猫)PMI鏄敱5鍊嬫摯鏁ｆ寚鏁�(sh霉)(鍒嗛鎸囨暩(sh霉))鍔犳瑠(qu谩n)瑷堢畻鑰屾垚銆�5鍊嬪垎椤炴寚鏁�(sh霉)鍙婂叾娆�(qu谩n)鏁�(sh霉)鏄緷鎿�(j霉)鍏跺皪缍�(j墨ng)婵熺殑鍏堣褰遍熆绋嬪害纰哄畾鐨�銆傚叿楂斿寘鎷細鏂拌▊鍠寚鏁�(sh霉)锛屾瑠(qu谩n)鏁�(sh霉)鐐�30%;鐢熺敘(ch菐n)鎸囨暩(sh霉)锛屾瑠(qu谩n)鏁�(sh霉)鐐�25%;寰炴キ(y猫)浜哄摗鎸囨暩(sh霉)锛屾瑠(qu谩n)鏁�(sh霉)鐐�20%;渚涙噳(y墨ng)鍟嗛厤閫佹檪闁撴寚鏁�(sh霉)锛屾瑠(qu谩n)鏁�(sh霉)鐐�15%;鍘熸潗鏂欏韩瀛樻寚鏁�(sh霉)锛屾瑠(qu谩n)鏁�(sh霉)鐐�10%銆傚叾涓紝渚涙噳(y墨ng)鍟嗛厤閫佹檪闁撴寚鏁�(sh霉)鐐洪€嗘寚鏁�(sh霉)锛屽湪鍚堟垚鍒堕€犳キ(y猫)PMI鎸囨暩(sh霉)鏅傞€茶鍙嶅悜閬嬬畻銆�

(3)缍滃悎PMI鐢�(ch菐n)鍑烘寚鏁�(sh霉)鐨勮▓绠楁柟娉�銆傜稖鍚圥MI鐢�(ch菐n)鍑烘寚鏁�(sh霉)鐢卞埗閫犳キ(y猫)鐢熺敘(ch菐n)鎸囨暩(sh霉)鑸囬潪鍒堕€犳キ(y猫)鍟嗗嫏(w霉)娲诲嫊鎸囨暩(sh霉)鍔犳瑠(qu谩n)姹傚拰鑰屾垚锛屾瑠(qu谩n)鏁�(sh霉)鍒嗗垾鐐哄埗閫犳キ(y猫)鍜岄潪鍒堕€犳キ(y猫)鍗燝DP鐨勬瘮閲�銆�

5.瀛ｇ瘈(ji茅)瑾�(di脿o)鏁�

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