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     3.2 淇＄敤棰�(f膿ng)闅▓閲�

銆€銆€淇＄敤棰�(f膿ng)闅▓閲忔槸鐝�(xi脿n)浠ｄ俊鐢ㄩⅷ(f膿ng)闅鐞嗙殑鍩虹(ch菙)鍜岄棞(gu膩n)閸电挵(hu谩n)绡€(ji茅)銆備俊鐢ㄩⅷ(f膿ng)闅▓閲忕稉(j墨ng)姝蜂簡寰炶€佸斧鍒ゆ柗娉�銆佷俊鐢ㄨ⿻鍒嗘ā鍨嬪埌閬曠磩姒傜巼妯″瀷鍒嗘瀽涓夊€嬩富瑕佺櫦(f膩)灞曢殠娈�锛岀壒鍒ユ槸銆婂反濉炵埦鏂拌硣鏈崝(xi茅)璀般€嬮紦鍕垫湁姊濅欢鐨勫晢妤�(y猫)閵€琛屼娇鐢ㄥ熀浜庡収(n猫i)閮ㄨ⿻绱氶珨绯荤殑鏂规硶(InternaRating-Based Approach)渚嗚▓閲忛仌绱勬鐜�銆侀仌绱勬悕澶卞苟鎿�(j霉)姝よ▓绠椾俊鐢ㄩⅷ(f膿ng)闅皪鎳�(y墨ng)鐨勮硣鏈姹�锛屾湁鍔涘湴鎺ㄥ嫊浜嗗晢妤�(y猫)閵€琛屼俊鐢ㄩⅷ(f膿ng)闅収(n猫i)閮ㄨ⿻绱氶珨绯诲拰瑷堥噺鎶€琛�(sh霉)鐨勬繁鍏ョ櫦(f膩)灞�銆�

銆€銆€鍟嗘キ(y猫)閵€琛屽皪淇＄敤棰�(f膿ng)闅殑瑷堥噺渚濊炒浜庡皪鍊熸浜哄拰浜ゆ槗棰�(f膿ng)闅殑瑭曚及?锛佹爧鑵块邯鏍冩拨Y鏈崝(xi茅)璀般€嬫槑纰鸿姹傦紝鍟嗘キ(y猫)閵€琛岀殑鍏�(n猫i)閮ㄨ⿻绱氭噳(y墨ng)鍩轰簬浜岀董瑭曠礆楂旂郴锛氫竴缍槸瀹㈡埗瑭曠礆锛屽彟涓€缍槸鍌甸爡瑭曠礆銆�

銆€銆€3.2.1 瀹㈡埗淇＄敤瑭曠礆

銆€銆€1. 瀹㈡埗淇＄敤瑭曠礆鐨勫熀鏈蹇�

銆€銆€瀹㈡埗淇＄敤瑭曠礆鏄晢妤�(y猫)閵€琛屽皪瀹㈡埗鍎熷偟鑳藉姏鍜屽劅鍌垫剰鎰跨殑瑷堥噺鍜岃⿻鍍�锛屽弽鏄犲鎴堕仌绱勯ⅷ(f膿ng)闅殑澶у皬?锛熻浕绮紆绱氱殑瑭曞児涓婚珨鏄晢妤�(y猫)閵€琛岋紝瑭曠礆鐩(bi膩o)鏄鎴堕仌绱勯ⅷ(f膿ng)闅�锛岃⿻鍍圭祼(ji茅)鏋滄槸淇＄敤绛夌礆鍜岄仌绱勬鐜�(PD)銆�

銆€銆€(1)閬曠磩鐨勫畾缇�

銆€銆€鏍规摎(j霉)銆婂反濉炵埦鏂拌硣鏈崝(xi茅)璀般€嬬殑瀹氱京锛岀暥(d膩ng)涓嬪垪涓€闋呮垨澶氶爡浜嬩欢鐧�(f膩)鐢熸檪锛屽偟鍕�(w霉)浜哄嵆琚鐐洪仌绱勶細

銆€銆€鈶犲晢妤�(y猫)閵€琛岃獚(r猫n)瀹�锛岄櫎闈為噰鍙栬拷绱㈡帾鏂�锛屽璁婄従(xi脿n)鎶垫娂鍝�(濡傛灉瀛樺湪鐨勮┍)锛屽€熸浜哄彲鑳界劇娉曞叏椤嶅劅閭勫皪鍟嗘キ(y猫)閵€琛岀殑鍌靛嫏(w霉)銆�

銆€?銆佽顶槎�?w霉)浜哄皪浜庡晢妤�(y猫)閵€琛岀殑瀵﹁唱(zh矛)鎬т俊璨稿偟鍕�(w霉)閫炬湡90澶╀互涓�(鍚�)銆傝嫢鍌靛嫏(w霉)浜鸿秴閬庝簡瑕�(gu墨)瀹氱殑閫忔敮闄愰鎴栨柊鏍稿畾鐨勯檺椤嶅皬浜庣洰鍓嶄綑椤�锛屽悇闋呴€忔敮灏囪瑕栦綔閫炬湡銆�

銆€?銆佸灐闊佃檻闂唕灏囪瑕栫偤鍙兘鐒℃硶鍏ㄩ鍎熼倓鍌靛嫏(w霉)锛�

銆€銆€閵€琛屽仠姝㈠皪璨告瑷堟伅;

銆€銆€鍦ㄧ櫦(f膩)鐢熶俊璨搁棞(gu膩n)绯诲悗锛岀敱浜庝俊璨歌唱(zh矛)閲忓嚭鐝�(xi脿n)澶у箙搴︿笅闄�锛岄妧琛屾矕閵蜂簡璨告鎴栬▓鎻愪簡灏堥爡婧�(zh菙n)鍌欓噾;

銆€銆€閵€琛屽皣璨告鍑哄敭骞剁浉鎳�(y墨ng)鎵挎摂(d膩n)浜嗚純澶х殑缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)鎼嶅け;

銆€銆€閵€琛屽悓鎰忔秷妤靛偟鍕�(w霉)閲嶇祫锛岀敱姝ゅ彲鑳界櫦(f膩)鐢熻純澶ц(gu墨)妯＄殑娓涘厤鎴栨帹閬插劅閭勬湰閲�銆佸埄鎭垨璨荤敤锛岄€犳垚鍌靛嫏(w霉)瑕�(gu墨)妯℃笡灏�;

銆€銆€灏卞€熸浜哄皪閵€琛岀殑鍌靛嫏(w霉)鑰岃█锛岄妧琛屽皣鍌靛嫏(w霉)浜哄垪鐐虹牬鐢�(ch菐n)浼佹キ(y猫)鎴栭浼肩殑鐙€娉�;

銆€銆€鍌靛嫏(w霉)浜虹敵璜嬬牬鐢�(ch菐n)锛屾垨宸茬稉(j墨ng)鐮寸敘(ch菐n)锛屾垨铏曚簬椤炰技鐙€鎱�(t脿i)锛岀敱姝ゅ皣涓嶅饱琛屾垨寤舵湡鍎熼倓閵€琛屽偟鍕�(w霉)銆�

銆€銆€(2)閬曠磩姒傜巼

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銆€銆€閬曠磩姒傜巼鐨勪及瑷堝寘鎷叐鍊嬪堡闈細涓€鏄柈涓€鍊熸浜虹殑閬曠磩姒傜巼;浜屾槸鏌愪竴淇＄敤绛夌礆鎵€鏈夊€熸浜虹殑閬曠磩姒傜巼?锛佹爧鑵块邯鏍冩拨Y鏈崝(xi茅)璀般€嬭姹傚鏂藉収(n猫i)閮ㄨ⿻绱氭硶鐨勫晢妤�(y猫)閵€琛屼及瑷堝叾鍚勪俊鐢ㄧ瓑绱氬€熸浜烘墍灏嶆噳(y墨ng)鐨勯仌绱勬鐜�锛屽父鐢ㄦ柟娉曟湁姝峰彶閬曠磩缍�(j墨ng)椹�銆佺当(t菕ng)瑷堟ā鍨嬪拰澶栭儴瑭曠礆鏄犲皠涓夌ó鏂规硶銆�

銆€銆€鑸囬仌绱勬鐜囧鏄撴贩娣嗙殑涓€鍊嬫蹇垫槸閬曠磩闋荤巼锛屽嵆閫氬父鎵€瑾殑閬曠磩鐜�銆傞仌绱勯牷鐜囨槸浜嬪悗妾㈤鐨勭祼(ji茅)鏋�锛岃€岄仌绱勬鐜囨槸鍒嗘瀽妯″瀷浣滃嚭鐨勪簨鍓嶉爯(y霉)娓�锛屽叐鑰呭瓨鍦ㄦ湰璩�(zh矛)鐨勫崁(q奴)鍒�銆�

銆€銆€鑸囬仌绱勬鐜囧鏄撴贩娣嗙殑鍙︿竴鍊嬫蹇垫槸涓嶈壇鐜�锛屼娇涓嶈壇鍌甸爡浣欓鍦ㄦ墍鏈夊偟闋呬綑椤嶇殑鍗犳瘮锛屼簩鑰呬笉鍏锋湁鍙瘮鎬�銆�

銆€銆€2.瀹㈡埗淇＄敤瑭曠礆鐨勭櫦(f膩)灞�

銆€銆€(1)鑰佸斧鍒ゆ柗娉�

銆€銆€鍗宠€佸斧绯荤当(t菕ng)(Expert System)锛屾槸鍟嗘キ(y猫)閵€琛屽湪闀锋湡缍�(j墨ng)鐕熶俊璨告キ(y猫)鍕�(w霉)銆佹壙鎿�(d膩n)淇＄敤棰�(f膿ng)闅亷绋嬩腑閫愭鐧�(f膩)灞曞苟瀹屽杽璧蜂締鐨勫偝绲�(t菕ng)淇＄敤鍒嗘瀽鏂规硶銆�

銆€?銆佸€鍊熸浜烘湁闂�(gu膩n)鐨勫洜绱狅細

銆€銆€鑱茶(y霉)(Reputation)

銆€銆€鏉犳】(Leverage)

銆€銆€鏀剁泭娉㈠嫊鎬�(Volatility of Earnings)

銆€銆€鈶¤垏甯傚牬鏈夐棞(gu膩n)鐨勫洜绱�

銆€銆€缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)鍛ㄦ湡(Economic Cycle)

銆€銆€瀹忚缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)鏀跨瓥(Macro-Economy Policy)

銆€銆€鍒╃巼姘村钩(Leveof Interest Rates)

銆€銆€鐩墠鎵€浣跨敤鐨勮€佸斧绯荤当(t菕ng)锛屽叾涓�锛屽皪浼佹キ(y猫)淇＄敤鍒嗘瀽鐨�5Cs绯荤当(t菕ng)浣跨敤鏈€鐐哄唬娉�銆�5Cs绯荤当(t菕ng)鎸囷細

銆€銆€鍝佸痉(Character)

銆€銆€璩囨湰(Capital)

銆€銆€閭勬鑳藉姏(Capacity)

銆€銆€鎶垫娂(Collateral)

銆€銆€缍�(j墨ng)鐕熺挵(hu谩n)澧�(Condition)

銆€銆€闄�5Cs绯荤当(t菕ng)澶�锛屼娇鐢ㄨ純鐐哄唬娉涚殑鑰佸斧绯荤当(t菕ng)閭勬湁閲濆皪浼佹キ(y猫)淇＄敤鍒嗘瀽鐨�5Ps绯荤当(t菕ng)鍜岄嚌灏嶅晢妤�(y猫)閵€琛岀瓑閲戣瀺姗�(j墨)妲�(g貌u)鐨勯П椐�(CAMEL)鍒嗘瀽绯荤当(t菕ng)銆�

銆€銆€5Ps鍖呮嫭锛氬€嬩汉鍥犵礌(PersonaFactor)銆佽硣閲戠敤閫斿洜绱�(Purpose Factor)銆侀倓娆句締婧愬洜绱�(Payment Factor)銆佷繚闅滃洜绱�(Protection Factor)銆佷紒妤�(y猫)鍓嶆櫙鍥犵礌(Perspective Factor)銆�

銆€銆€椐遍(CAMEL)鍒嗘瀽绯荤当(t菕ng)鍖呮嫭锛氳硣鏈厖瓒虫€�(CapitaAdequacy)銆佽硣鐢�(ch菐n)璩�(zh矛)閲�(Asset Quality)銆佺鐞嗘按骞�(Management)銆佺泩鍒╂按骞�(Earnings)娴佸嫊鎬�(Liquidity)銆�

銆€銆€鑰佸斧绯荤当(t菕ng)鐨勭獊鍑虹壒榛炲湪浜庡皣淇¤哺鑰佸斧鐨勭稉(j墨ng)椹楀拰鍒ゆ柗浣滅偤淇＄敤鍒嗘瀽鍜屾焙绛栫殑涓昏鍩虹(ch菙)锛岄€欑ó涓昏鎬у緢寮�(qi谩ng)鐨勬柟娉�/楂旂郴甯朵締鐨勪竴鍊嬬獊鍑哄晱椤屾槸灏嶄俊鐢ㄩⅷ(f膿ng)闅殑瑭曚及缂轰箯涓€鑷存€�銆傛澶�锛岀洝绠¤€佸斧绯荤当(t菕ng)鍦ㄩ妧琛屾キ(y猫)鐨勯暦鏈熺櫦(f膩)灞曞拰瀵﹁笎涓凡缍�(j墨ng)褰㈡垚浜嗚純鐐烘垚鐔熺殑鍒嗘瀽妗嗘灦锛屼絾鑰佸斧绯荤当(t菕ng)缂轰箯绯荤当(t菕ng)鐨勭悊璜栨敮鎸�锛屽挨鍏舵槸灏嶉棞(gu膩n)閸佃绱犵殑閬告搰銆佹瑠(qu谩n)閲嶇殑纰哄畾浠ュ強缍滃悎瑭曞畾绛夋柟闈㈡洿椤杽寮便€傚洜姝�锛岃€佸斧绯荤当(t菕ng)鏇撮仼鍚堜簬灏嶅€熸浜洪€�(j矛n)琛屾槸鍜屽惁鐨勪簩缍焙绛�锛岄洠浠ュ鐝�(xi脿n)灏嶄俊鐢ㄩⅷ(f膿ng)闅殑婧�(zh菙n)纰鸿▓閲�銆�

銆€銆€(2)淇＄敤瑭曞垎娉�

銆€銆€淇＄敤瑭曞垎妯″瀷鏄竴绋偝绲�(t菕ng)鐨勪俊鐢ㄩⅷ(f膿ng)闅噺鍖栨ā鍨嬶紝鍒╃敤鍙瀵熷埌鐨勫€熸浜虹壒寰佽畩閲忚▓绠楀嚭涓€鍊嬫暩(sh霉)鍊�(寰楀垎)渚嗕唬琛ㄥ偟鍕�(w霉)浜虹殑淇＄敤棰�(f膿ng)闅�锛屽苟灏囧€熸浜烘椤炰簬涓嶅悓鐨勯ⅷ(f膿ng)闅瓑绱氥€�

銆€銆€鑳屾櫙鐭ヨ瓨锛氫俊鐢ㄨ⿻鍒嗘ā鍨�

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銆€ 姝峰勾閵€琛屽緸妤�(y猫)璩囨牸鑰冭│鐪熼鍖附(word涓嬭級鐗�)

    閵€琛屽緸妤�(y猫)鑰冭│銆婂€嬩汉鐞嗚病銆嬭€冮粸闆ｉ粸瑙ｆ瀽鍖附

銆€銆€

銆€銆€4. 鍊嬩汉瀹㈡埗瑭曞垎鏂规硶

銆€銆€鎸夌収鍦嬮殯鎱ｄ緥锛屽皪浜庝紒妤�(y猫)鐨勪俊鐢ㄨ⿻瀹氶噰鐢ㄨ⿻绱氭柟娉�锛岃€屽皪鍊嬩汉瀹㈡埗鐨勪俊鐢ㄨ⿻瀹氶噰鐢ㄨ⿻鍒嗘柟娉曘€傜敱浜庡€嬩汉瀹㈡埗鏁�(sh霉)閲忕溇澶�锛屾鍙蹭俊鎭殑瑕�(gu墨)寰嬫€у挤(qi谩ng)锛屽洜姝や富瑕侀噰鐢ㄥ熀浜庢鍙叉暩(sh霉)鎿�(j霉)绲�(t菕ng)瑷堢殑瑭曞垎妯″瀷瑷堥噺鍊嬩汉瀹㈡埗鐨勪俊鐢ㄩⅷ(f膿ng)闅�銆�

銆€銆€鍙冪収鍦嬮殯鏈€浣冲韪�锛屽€嬩汉瀹㈡埗瑭曞垎鎸夌収鎵€閲囩敤鐨勭当(t菕ng)瑷堟柟娉曞彲浠ュ垎鐐哄洖姝稿垎鏋�銆並鑷ㄨ繎鍊�銆佺缍�(j墨ng)缍�(w菐ng)绲�(lu貌)妯″瀷绛�;鎸夌収瑭曞垎鐨勫皪璞″彲浠ュ垎鐐哄鎴舵按骞�銆佺敘(ch菐n)鍝佹按骞冲拰璩埗姘村钩锛屾寜鐓ц⿻鍒嗙殑鐩殑鍙互鍒嗙偤棰�(f膿ng)闅⿻鍒�銆佸埄娼よ⿻鍒�銆佸繝瑾犲害瑭曞垎绛�;鎸夌収骞冲垎鐨勯殠娈靛墖鍙互鍒嗙偤鎷撳睍瀹㈡埗鏈�(淇＄敤灞€瑭曞垎)銆佸鎵瑰鎴舵湡(鐢宠珛瑭曞垎)鍜岀鐞嗗鎴舵湡(琛岀偤瑭曞垎)銆�

銆€銆€(1)淇＄敤灞€瑭曞垎

銆€銆€閫欎竴闅庢甯哥敤鐨勬ā鍨嬫湁锛�

銆€?銆佷籂L(f膿ng)闅⿻鍒�锛岄爯(y霉)娓秷璨昏€呴仌绱�/澹炶超棰�(f膿ng)闅殑澶у皬;

銆€?銆佽皯鎵惧瑬u鍒嗭紝闋�(y霉)娓秷璨昏€呴枊鎴跺悗绲﹀晢妤�(y猫)閵€琛屽付渚嗘經鍦ㄦ敹鐩�;

銆€?銆佺嚠椋榓(ch菐n)瑭曞垎锛岄爯(y霉)娓秷璨昏€呯牬鐢�(ch菐n)棰�(f膿ng)闅殑澶у皬;

銆€?銆佽姺娓岊嵔搴為敯鍗ｉ珶u鍒�銆�

銆€銆€(2)鐢宠珛瑭曞垎

銆€銆€鐢宠珛瑭曞垎妯″瀷閫氶亷缍滃悎鑰冩叜鐢宠珛鑰呭湪鐢宠珛琛ㄤ笂鎵€濉鐨勫悇绋俊鎭�锛屽皪鐓у晢妤�(y猫)閵€琛岄浼肩敵璜嬭€呴枊鎴跺悗鐨勪俊鐢ㄨ〃鐝�(xi脿n)锛屼互瑭曞垎渚嗛爯(y霉)娓敵璜嬭€呴枊鎴跺悗涓€瀹氭檪鏈熷収(n猫i)閬曠磩姒傜巼锛岄€氶亷姣旇純瑭插鎴剁殑閬曠磩姒傜巼鍜屽晢妤�(y猫)閵€琛屽彲浠ユ帴鍙楃殑閬曠磩搴曠窔渚嗕綔鍑烘嫆绲曟垨鎺ュ彈鐨勬焙瀹�銆�

銆€銆€淇＄敤灞€棰�(f膿ng)闅⿻鍒嗘ā鍨嬪拰鏀剁泭瑭曞垎妯″瀷鏄緢鏈夊児鍊肩殑姹虹瓥宸ュ叿锛岃垏鐢宠珛瑭曞垎妯″瀷鍏锋湁浜掕(b菙)鎬�锛屽彲浠ョ祫鎴愪簩缍垨涓夌董鐭╅櫍渚嗛€�(j矛n)琛屼俊璨稿鎵规焙绛栥€備笉鍚岀殑鏄�锛岀敵璜嬭⿻鍒嗘ā鍨嬫槸鍟嗘キ(y猫)閵€琛岀偤鐗瑰畾閲戣瀺鐢�(ch菐n)鍝佺殑鐢宠珛鑰呴噺韬畾鍋氱殑锛岃兘澶犳洿婧�(zh菙n)纰�銆佸叏闈㈠湴鍙嶆槧鍟嗘キ(y猫)閵€琛屽鎴剁殑鐗规畩鎬э紝鑰屼笖鍙互鍒╃敤鏇村鐨勪俊鎭皪瀹㈡埗灏囦締鐨勪俊鐢ㄨ〃鐝�(xi脿n)閫�(j矛n)琛岄爯(y霉)娓�;鑰屼俊鐢ㄥ眬瑭曞垎妯″瀷閫氬父鏄皪鐢宠珛鑰呭湪鏈締鍚勭ó淇¤哺闂�(gu膩n)绯讳腑鐨勯仌绱勬鐜囦綔鍑洪爯(y霉)娓�銆�

銆€銆€(3)琛岀偤瑭曞垎

銆€銆€琛岀偤瑭曞垎琚敤渚嗚瀵熺従(xi脿n)鏈夊鎴剁殑琛岀偤锛屼互鎺屾彙瀹㈡埗鍙婃檪閭勬鐨勫彲淇″害銆�

銆€銆€5.瀹㈡埗瑭曠礆/瑭曞垎鐨勯璀�(Validation)

銆€銆€(1)瀹㈡埗閬曠磩棰�(f膿ng)闅崁(q奴)鍒嗚兘鍔涚殑椹楄瓑

銆€銆€鏈熷熀鏈師鐞嗘槸閬嬬敤澶氱ó鏁�(sh霉)鐞嗗垎鏋愭柟娉曟椹楄⿻绱氱郴绲�(t菕ng)灏嶅鎴舵槸鍚﹂仌绱勭殑鍒ゆ柗婧�(zh菙n)纰烘€с€�

銆€銆€(2)閬曠磩姒傜巼闋�(y霉)娓簴(zh菙n)纰烘€х殑椹楄瓑(鏍℃)

銆€銆€鍏跺熀鏈師鐞嗘槸閬嬬敤绲�(t菕ng)瑷堝(xu茅)涓殑鍋囪ō(sh猫)妾㈤锛岀暥(d膩ng)瀵﹂殯閬曠磩鐧�(f膩)鐢熸儏娉佽秴閬庣郸瀹氶柧鍊�锛屽墖鎷掔禃鍘熷亣瑷�(sh猫)锛岃獚(r猫n)鐐篜D闋�(y霉)娓笉婧�(zh菙n)纰恒€傚父鐢ㄦ柟娉曟湁锛氫簩闋呭垎甯冩椹�锛屾椹楃郸瀹氬勾浠芥煇涓€绛夌礆PD闋�(y霉)娓簴(zh菙n)纰烘€�;鍗℃柟鍒嗗竷妾㈤锛屾椹楃郸瀹氬勾浠戒笉鍚岀瓑绱歅D闋�(y霉)娓簴(zh菙n)纰烘€�;姝ｆ厠(t脿i)鍒嗗竷妾㈤锛屾椹椾笉鍚屽勾浠藉悓涓€绛夌礆PD闋�(y霉)娓簴(zh菙n)纰烘€�;鎿�(ku貌)灞曠殑浜ら€氱噲妾㈤锛屾椹椾笉鍚屽勾浠戒笉鍚岀瓑绱歅D闋�(y霉)娓簴(zh菙n)纰烘€с€�

銆€銆€3.2.2 鍌甸爡瑭曠礆

銆€銆€1. 鍌甸爡瑭曠礆鐨勫熀鏈蹇�

銆€銆€(1)鍌甸爡瑭曠礆

銆€銆€鍌甸爡瑭曠礆鏄皪浜ゆ槗鏈韩鐨勭壒瀹氶ⅷ(f膿ng)闅€�(j矛n)琛岃▓閲忓拰瑭曞児锛屽弽鏄犲鎴堕仌绱勫悗鐨勫偟闋呮悕澶卞ぇ灏�銆傜壒瀹氶ⅷ(f膿ng)闅洜绱犲寘鎷姷鎶笺€佸劒(y艒u)鍏堟€�銆佺敘(ch菐n)鍝侀鍒�銆佸湴鍗€(q奴)銆佽妤�(y猫)绛�銆傚偟闋呰⿻绱氭棦鍙互鍙弽鏄犲偟闋呮湰韬殑浜ゆ槗棰�(f膿ng)闅紝涔熷彲浠ュ悓鏅傚弽鏄犲鎴朵俊鐢ㄩⅷ(f膿ng)闅拰鍌甸爡浜ゆ槗棰�(f膿ng)闅�銆�

銆€銆€(2)鍌甸爡瑭曠礆鑸囧鎴惰⿻绱氱殑闂�(gu膩n)绯�

銆€銆€瀹㈡埗瑭曠礆鑸囧偟闋呰⿻绱氭槸鍙嶆槧淇＄敤棰�(f膿ng)闅按骞崇殑鍏╁€嬬矾搴︺€備竴鍊嬪偟鍕�(w霉)浜哄彧鑳芥湁涓€鍊嬪鎴惰⿻绱�锛岃€屽悓涓€鍌靛嫏(w霉)浜虹殑涓嶅悓浜ゆ槗鍙兘鏈冩湁涓嶅悓鐨勫偟闋呰⿻绱�銆�

銆€銆€(3)鎼嶅け

銆€銆€瀹㈡埗閬曠磩鍚庣郸鍟嗘キ(y猫)閵€琛屽付渚嗙殑鍌甸爡鎼嶅け鍖呮嫭鍏╁€嬪堡闈細涓€鏄稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)鎼嶅け;浜屾槸鏈冭▓鎼嶅け銆�

銆€銆€(4)閬曠磩棰�(f膿ng)闅毚闇�

銆€銆€閬曠磩棰�(f膿ng)闅毚闇叉槸鎸囧偟鍕�(w霉)浜洪仌绱勬檪鐨勯爯(y霉)鏈熻〃鍏�(n猫i)琛ㄥ闋呯洰鏆撮湶绺藉拰銆傚鏋滃鎴跺凡缍�(j墨ng)閬曠磩锛屽墖閬曠磩棰�(f膿ng)闅毚闇茬偤鍏堕仌绱勬檪鐨勫偟鍕�(w霉)璩潰鍍瑰€�;濡傛灉瀹㈡埗灏氭湭閬曠磩锛屽墖閬曠磩棰�(f膿ng)闅毚闇插皪浜庤〃鍏�(n猫i)闋呯洰鐐哄偟鍕�(w霉)璩潰鍍瑰€�锛屽皪浜庤〃澶栭爡鐩偤宸叉彁鍙栭噾椤�+淇＄敤杞�(zhu菐n)鎻涚郴鏁�(sh霉)脳宸叉壙璜炬湭鎻愬彇閲戦銆�

銆€銆€(5)閬曠磩鎼嶅け鐜�

銆€銆€閬曠磩鎼嶅け鐜�(Loss Given Default锛孡GD)鏄寚绲﹀畾鍊熸浜洪仌绱勫悗璨告鎼嶅け閲戦鍗犻仌绱勯ⅷ(f膿ng)闅毚闇茬殑姣斾緥锛屽叾浼拌▓鍏紡鐐烘悕澶�/閬曠磩棰�(f膿ng)闅毚闇�銆�

銆€銆€2. 鍌甸爡瑭曠礆鐨勬柟娉�

銆€銆€(1)褰遍熆閬曠磩鎼嶅け鐜囩殑鍥犵礌

銆€?銆佷郊a(ch菐n)鍝佸洜绱�

銆€銆€鍖呮嫭娓呭劅鍎�(y艒u)鍏堟€�(Seniority)銆佹姷鎶煎搧绛�銆�

銆€銆€鈶″叕鍙稿洜绱�

銆€?銆佸潓琚營(y猫)鍥犵礌

銆€?銆佽壙璨恀(q奴)鍥犵礌

銆€?銆佽幒鏆缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)鍛ㄦ湡鍥犵礌

銆€銆€(2)瑷堥噺閬曠磩鎼嶅け鐜囩殑鏂规硶

銆€?銆佸亪琚岄盀r鍊兼硶銆傞€氶亷甯傚牬涓婇浼艰硣鐢�(ch菐n)鐨勪俊鐢ㄥ児宸�(Credit Spread)鍜岄仌绱勬鐜囨帹绠楅仌绱勬悕澶辩巼锛屽叾鍋囪ō(sh猫)鍓嶆彁鏄競鍫磋兘鍙婃檪鏈夋晥鍙嶆槧鍌靛埜鐧�(f膩)琛屼紒妤�(y猫)鐨勪俊鐢ㄩⅷ(f膿ng)闅畩鍖�锛屼富瑕侀仼鐢ㄤ簬宸茬稉(j墨ng)鍦ㄥ競鍫翠笂鐧�(f膩)琛屽苟涓斿彲浜ゆ槗鐨勫ぇ浼佹キ(y猫)銆佹斂搴�銆侀妧琛屽偟鍒�銆�

銆€銆€鈶″洖鏀剁従(xi脿n)閲戞硶銆傛牴鎿�(j霉)閬曠磩姝峰彶娓呮敹鎯呮硜锛岄爯(y霉)娓仌绱勮哺娆惧湪娓呮敹閬庣▼涓殑鐝�(xi脿n)閲戞祦锛屽苟瑷堢畻鍑篖GD锛屽嵆LGD=1-鍥炴敹鐜�=1-(鍥炴敹閲戦-鍥炴敹鎴愭湰)/閬曠磩棰�(f膿ng)闅毚闇层€�

銆€銆€3. 璨告鍒嗛鑸囧偟闋呰⿻绱�

銆€銆€淇¤哺璩囩敘(ch菐n)棰�(f膿ng)闅垎椤為€氬父鏄寚淇¤哺鍒嗘瀽鍜岀鐞嗕汉鍝℃垨鐩�(ji膩n)绠＄暥(d膩ng)灞€鐨勬鏌ヤ汉鍝�锛岀稖鍚堣兘澶犵嵅寰楃殑鍏ㄩ儴淇℃伅骞堕亱鐢ㄦ渶浣冲垽鏂�锛屾牴鎿�(j霉)淇¤哺璩囩敘(ch菐n)鐨勯ⅷ(f膿ng)闅▼搴﹀皪淇¤哺璩囩敘(ch菐n)璩�(zh矛)閲忎綔鍑鸿⿻鍍�銆�

銆€銆€2001骞达紝鎴戝湅鐩�(ji膩n)绠＄暥(d膩ng)灞€鍑鸿嚭浜嗚哺娆鹃ⅷ(f膿ng)闅垎椤炵殑鎸囧皫(d菐o)鍘熷墖锛屾妸璨告鍒嗙偤姝ｅ父銆侀棞(gu膩n)娉ㄣ€佹绱�銆佸彲鑳藉拰鎼嶅け浜旈(鍚庝笁椤炲悎绋辩偤涓嶈壇璨告)銆�

銆€銆€鍦ㄥ垎椤為亷绋嬩腑锛屽晢妤�(y猫)閵€琛屽繀闋堣嚦灏戝仛鍒颁互涓嬪叚鍊嬫柟闈細

銆€銆€鈶� 寤虹珛鍋ュ叏鍏�(n猫i)閮ㄦ帶鍒舵(j墨)鍒�锛屽畬鍠勪俊璨歌(gu墨)绔�銆佸埗搴﹀拰杈︽硶;

銆€?銆�?寤虹珛鏈夋晥鐨勪俊璨哥祫绻旂鐞嗛珨鍒�;

銆€銆€鈶� 瀵﹁瀵╄哺鍒嗛洟;

銆€?銆�?瀹屽杽淇¤哺妾旀绠＄悊鍒跺害锛屼繚璀夎哺娆炬獢妗堢殑閫ｇ簩(x霉)鍜屽畬鏁�;

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銆€銆€浠跨湡妯″瀷銆傜敤澶ч噺浠跨湡瑭﹂(鎯呮櫙妯℃摤)鎵€鐢�(ch菐n)鐢熺殑缍�(j墨ng)椹楀垎甯冧締杩戜技浠ｆ浛鐪熷鍒嗗竷銆備豢鐪熸ā鍨嬪叿鏈夊緢澶х殑闈堟椿鎬�锛屼絾鏄皪淇℃伅绯荤当(t菕ng)鐨勮▓绠楄兘鍔涜姹傚緢楂�銆�

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銆€?銆佽窚reditMetrics妯″瀷鐨勪竴鍊嬪熀鏈壒榛炲氨鏄緸璩囩敘(ch菐n)绲勫悎鑰屽苟涓嶆槸鍠竴璩囩敘(ch菐n)鐨勮搴︿締鐪嬪緟淇＄敤棰�(f膿ng)闅�銆�

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銆€銆€(2)Credit Portfolio View妯″瀷

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銆€銆€(3)Credit Risk+妯″瀷

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    閵€琛屽緸妤�(y猫)鑰冭│銆婂€嬩汉鐞嗚病銆嬭€冮粸闆ｉ粸瑙ｆ瀽鍖附

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銆€銆€鍦嬮殯棰�(f膿ng)闅槸鎸囩稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)涓婚珨鍦ㄨ垏闈炴湰鍦嬪眳姘戦€�(j矛n)琛屽湅闅涚稉(j墨ng)璨�(m脿o)鑸囬噾铻嶅線渚嗘檪锛岀敱浜庡垾鍦嬬稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)銆佹斂娌诲拰绀炬渻绛夋柟闈㈢殑璁婂寲鑰岄伃鍙楁悕澶辩殑棰�(f膿ng)闅�銆傚湅瀹堕ⅷ(f膿ng)闅笉鍍呭寘鎷竴鍊嬪湅瀹舵斂搴滄湭鑳藉饱琛屽叾鍌靛嫏(w霉)鎵€灏�(d菐o)鑷寸殑棰�(f膿ng)闅�(涓绘瑠(qu谩n)棰�(f膿ng)闅�)锛屼篃鍖呮嫭涓绘瑠(qu谩n)鍦嬪浠ョ洿鎺ユ垨闁撴帴鏂瑰紡褰遍熆鍌靛嫏(w霉)浜哄饱琛屽劅鍌电京鍕�(w霉)鐨勮兘鍔涘拰鎰忔効銆傚皪鍦嬪棰�(f膿ng)闅殑瑷堥噺鍙互閫氶亷涓绘瑠(qu谩n)瑭曠礆渚嗗鐝�(xi脿n)銆�

銆€銆€涓绘瑠(qu谩n)瑭曠礆鎸囧悇鍦嬬洿鎺ユ垨闁撴帴褰遍熆鍌靛嫏(w霉)浜哄饱琛屽叾灏嶅鍎熶粯缇╁嫏(w霉)鐨勮兘鍔涘拰鎰忔効鐨勬脯瑭﹁垏鎺掑悕銆傜洰鍓�锛屾瘮杓冮€氱敤鐨勪富娆�(qu谩n)瑭曠礆妯″瀷鏄敱缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)瀹跺潕鎵樺拰甯曞厠(Cantor & Packer锛�1996)鎻愬嚭鐨�锛孋P妯″瀷鍥炴浜嗘(bi膩o)婧�(zh菙n)鏅埦鍜岀﹩杩肠浜堢殑涓绘瑠(qu谩n)棰�(f膿ng)闅⿻绱氾紝鍒╃敤49鍊嬪湅瀹剁殑姗埅闈㈡暩(sh霉)鎿�(j霉)锛屾脯閲忓嚭涓绘瑠(qu谩n)棰�(f膿ng)闅⿻绱氫腑浣滅偤姹哄畾鍥犵礌鐨�8鍊嬭畩閲忥細

銆€?銆�?浜哄潎鏀跺叆锛氫汉鍧嘒NP(鍗冪編鍏�)銆�

銆€?銆�?GDP澧為暦锛氬勾鍧囧闅汫DP澧為暦(%)銆�

銆€銆€鈶� 閫氳波鑶ㄨ劰锛氬勾鍧囨秷璨诲児鏍奸€氳劰鐜�(%)銆�

銆€?銆�?璨℃斂骞宠　锛氱浉灏嶄簬GDP鐨勪腑澶病鏀垮勾鍧囩泩浣�(%)銆�

銆€銆€鈶� 澶栭儴骞宠　锛氱浉灏嶄簬GDP鐨勮硣鏈爡鐩勾鍧囬爢宸�(%)銆�

銆€銆€鈶� 澶栧偟锛氱浉灏嶄簬鍑哄彛鐨勫骞ｅ偟鍕�(w霉)(%)銆�

銆€銆€鈶� 缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)鐧�(f膩)灞曟寚妯�(bi膩o)锛欼MF鐨勫伐妤�(y猫)鍖栧湅瀹跺垎椤�(1=宸ユキ(y猫)鍖�;0=闈炲伐妤�(y猫)鍖�)銆�

銆€?銆�?閬曠磩鍙叉寚妯�(bi膩o)锛�1970骞翠互渚嗙殑澶栧梗鍌靛嫏(w霉)閬曠磩(1=閬曠磩;0=鏈仌绱�)銆�

銆€銆€鏈辩壒鍕掑拰楹ュ崱閷�(Juttner & McCarthy锛�2000)灏嶄笂杩癈P妯″瀷閬╃敤浜炴床閲戣瀺鍗辨(j墨)涔嬪悗鐨勬柊鑸堝競鍫村湅瀹朵富娆�(qu谩n)瑭曠礆鐨勬儏娉侀€�(j矛n)琛屼簡鍒嗘瀽锛屽鍔犱簡涓嬭堪5鍊嬭畩閲�锛屽苟閬嬬敤鍥炴鍒嗘瀽灏岰P妯″瀷閫�(j矛n)琛屼簡鎿�(ku貌)灞曪細

銆€銆€鈶� 鍒╁樊璁婇噺锛氭煇鍦嬪拰缇庡湅鐩稿悓鏈熼檺鐨勬斂搴滃偟鍕�(w霉)涔嬮枔鐨勫埄鐜囧樊銆�

銆€?銆�?閲戣瀺閮ㄩ杸娼涘湪鍟忛璩囩敘(ch菐n)鍗燝DP鐨勭櫨鍒嗘瘮銆�

銆€銆€閲戣瀺绯荤当(t菕ng)鍥犳斂搴滆€岀敘(ch菐n)鐢熺殑鎴栨湁璨�(f霉)鍌佃垏GDP涔嬫瘮銆�

銆€銆€绉佷汉閮ㄩ杸淇¤哺澧為暦鐨勮畩鍖栫巼(鐢ㄥ皪GDP鐨勭櫨鍒嗙巼琛ㄧず)銆�

銆€銆€瀵﹂殯鍖巼璁婇噺(鐢ㄨ臣璨峰姏骞冲児浣滅偤鍧囪　鍩洪粸)銆�

銆€銆€鑸囧叾浠栦俊鐢ㄩⅷ(f膿ng)闅⿻绱�/瑭曞垎鐩告瘮锛屼富娆�(qu谩n)棰�(f膿ng)闅⿻绱氶渶瑕佹洿澶氱殑缍�(j墨ng)椹楀垽鏂�锛岃垏鍏惰瀹冩槸涓€闁€绮剧⒑鐨勭瀛�(xu茅)锛屼笉濡傝瀹冩槸涓€闁€铇婂惈钁椾笉鍙爯(y霉)瑕嬫€х殑钘濊(sh霉)銆�

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銆€銆€3.2.5 銆婂反濉炵埦鏂拌硣鏈崝(xi茅)璀般€嬩笅鐨勪俊鐢ㄩⅷ(f膿ng)闅噺鍖�

銆€銆€鑳屾櫙鐭ヨ瓨锛氥€婂反濉炵埦鏂拌硣鏈崝(xi茅)璀般€嬫杩�

銆€銆€銆婂反濉炵埦璩囨湰鍗�(xi茅)璀般€嬪皣鍟嗘キ(y猫)閵€琛屼俊鐢ㄩⅷ(f膿ng)闅硣鐢�(ch菐n)鍒嗙偤鍥涘ぇ椤�锛屽垎鍒ヤ互鐩告噳(y墨ng)鐨勬瑠(qu谩n)閲�(K)鍙嶆槧鍏堕ⅷ(f膿ng)闅ぇ灏忥細

銆€銆€缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)鍚堜綔鑸囩櫦(f膩)灞曠祫绻�(OECD)涓ぎ鏀垮簻鐨勫偟娆�(qu谩n)棰�(f膿ng)闅毚闇叉瑠(qu谩n)閲嶇偤0;

銆€銆€灏嶄簬OECD鐨勫晢妤�(y猫)閵€琛屽強OECD浠ュ鐨勪腑澶斂搴滅殑鍌垫瑠(qu谩n)棰�(f膿ng)闅毚闇叉瑠(qu谩n)閲嶇偤20%;

銆€銆€鎶垫娂璨告鐨勯ⅷ(f膿ng)闅毚闇叉瑠(qu谩n)閲嶇偤50%;

銆€銆€鍏朵粬鎵€鏈夊晢妤�(y猫)閵€琛�銆佷紒妤�(y猫)銆佸€嬩汉鐨勯ⅷ(f膿ng)闅毚闇叉瑠(qu谩n)閲嶉兘鐐�100%.

銆€銆€绗﹀悎鐩�(ji膩n)绠¤姹傜殑鍟嗘キ(y猫)閵€琛屽繀闋堟豢瓒筹細璩囨湰/淇＄敤棰�(f膿ng)闅姞娆�(qu谩n)璩囩敘(ch菐n) > 8%.鍏朵腑锛屼俊鐢ㄩⅷ(f膿ng)闅姞娆�(qu谩n)璩囩敘(ch菐n)鐐哄晢妤�(y猫)閵€琛屾墍鏈夊偟闋呴ⅷ(f膿ng)闅毚闇查鑸囧皪鎳�(y墨ng)娆�(qu谩n)閲嶄箻绌嶄箣鍜�銆�

銆€銆€銆婂反濉炵埦鏂拌硣鏈崝(xi茅)璀般€嬶紝涓嶅儏妲�(g貌u)寤轰簡鏈€浣庤硣鏈厖瓒崇巼銆佺洠(ji膩n)鐫ｆ鏌ャ€佸競鍫寸磩鏉熶笁澶ф敮鏌�锛屾槑纰烘渶浣庤硣鏈厖瓒崇巼瑕嗚搵浜嗕俊鐢ㄩⅷ(f膿ng)闅�銆佸競鍫撮ⅷ(f膿ng)闅€佹搷浣滈ⅷ(f膿ng)闅笁澶т富瑕侀ⅷ(f膿ng)闅締婧�锛岃€屼笖灏嶄俊鐢ㄩⅷ(f膿ng)闅殑瑷堥噺鎻愬嚭浜嗘(bi膩o)婧�(zh菙n)娉曘€佸収(n猫i)閮ㄨ⿻绱氭硶鍒濈礆娉�銆佸収(n猫i)閮ㄨ⿻绱氭硶楂樼礆娉曚笁绋柟娉�銆�

銆€銆€淇＄敤棰�(f膿ng)闅⿻绱氬垎鐐哄閮ㄨ⿻绱氬拰鍏�(n猫i)閮ㄨ⿻绱�銆傚閮ㄨ⿻绱氭槸灏堟キ(y猫)瑭曠礆姗�(j墨)妲�(g貌u)灏嶇壒瀹氬偟鍕�(w霉)浜虹殑鍎熷偟鑳藉姏鍜屾剰鎰跨殑鏁撮珨瑭曚及锛屼富瑕佷緷闈犺€佸斧瀹氭€у垎鏋�锛岃⿻绱氬皪璞′富瑕佹槸鏀垮簻鎴栧ぇ浼佹キ(y猫);鍏�(n猫i)閮ㄨ⿻绱氭槸鍟嗘キ(y猫)閵€琛屾牴鎿�(j霉)鍏�(n猫i)閮ㄦ暩(sh霉)鎿�(j霉)鍜屾(bi膩o)婧�(zh菙n)(鍋�(c猫)閲嶄簬瀹氶噺鍒嗘瀽)锛屽皪瀹㈡埗鐨勪俊鐢ㄩⅷ(f膿ng)闅強鍌甸爡鐨勪氦鏄撻ⅷ(f膿ng)闅€�(j矛n)琛岃⿻鍍�锛屽苟鎿�(j霉)浠ヤ及瑷堥仌绱勬鐜囧強閬曠磩鎼嶅け鐜�锛屼綔鐐轰俊鐢ㄨ⿻绱氬拰鍒嗛绠＄悊鐨勬(bi膩o)婧�(zh菙n)銆�

銆€銆€宸村鐖惧鍝℃渻閲濆皪鍚勫晢妤�(y猫)閵€琛岄ⅷ(f膿ng)闅鐞嗘按骞崇殑涓嶅悓锛屾彁鍑轰簡淇＄敤棰�(f膿ng)闅▓閲忕殑鍏╁ぇ椤炴柟娉曪細妯�(bi膩o)婧�(zh菙n)娉曪紝鍩轰簬鍟嗘キ(y猫)閵€琛岃硣鐢�(ch菐n)鐨勫閮ㄨ⿻绱氱祼(ji茅)鏋�锛屼互妯�(bi膩o)婧�(zh菙n)鍖栨柟寮忚▓閲忎俊鐢ㄩⅷ(f膿ng)闅�;鍏�(n猫i)閮ㄨ⿻绱氭硶锛屽熀浜庡晢妤�(y猫)閵€琛岃嚜韬仴鍏ㄥ拰瀹屽倷鐨勫収(n猫i)閮ㄨ⿻绱氶珨绯昏▓閲忎俊鐢ㄩⅷ(f膿ng)闅紝浣嗗繀闋堢稉(j墨ng)閬庣洠(ji膩n)绠＄暥(d膩ng)灞€鐨勬妧琛�(sh霉)妾㈤鍜屾寮忔壒婧�(zh菙n)銆�

銆€銆€1.妯�(bi膩o)婧�(zh菙n)娉�

銆€?銆佸仌铏(y猫)閵€琛岀殑淇¤哺璩囩敘(ch菐n)鍒嗙偤灏嶄富娆�(qu谩n)鍦嬪鐨勫偟娆�(qu谩n)銆佸皪涓€鑸晢妤�(y猫)閵€琛岀殑鍌垫瑠(qu谩n)銆佸皪鍏徃鐨勫偟娆�(qu谩n)銆佸寘鎷湪鐩�(ji膩n)绠￠浂鍞硣鐢�(ch菐n)涓殑鍌垫瑠(qu谩n)銆佷互灞呮皯鎴跨敘(ch菐n)鎶垫娂鐨勫偟娆�(qu谩n)銆佽〃澶栧偟娆�(qu谩n)绛�13椤�;

銆€?銆佽动蠂槌�?qu谩n)銆佸晢妤�(y猫)閵€琛屻€佸叕鍙哥殑鍌垫瑠(qu谩n)绛夐潪闆跺敭椤炰俊璨歌硣鐢�(ch菐n)锛屾牴鎿�(j霉)鍌靛嫏(w霉)浜虹殑澶栭儴瑭曠礆绲�(ji茅)鏋滃垎鍒ョ⒑瀹氭瑠(qu谩n)閲�锛岄浂鍞璩囩敘(ch菐n)鏍规摎(j霉)鏄惁鏈夊眳姘戞埧鐢�(ch菐n)鎶垫娂鍒嗗垾绲︿簣75%銆�35%鐨勬瑠(qu谩n)閲�锛岃〃澶栦俊璨歌硣鐢�(ch菐n)閲囩敤淇＄敤棰�(f膿ng)闅綁(zhu菐n)鎻涚郴鏁�(sh霉)杞�(zhu菐n)鎻涚偤淇＄敤棰�(f膿ng)闅毚闇�;

銆€?銆佸⒓璇昐鍟嗘キ(y猫)閵€琛岄€氶亷鎶垫娂銆佹摂(d膩n)淇�銆佷俊鐢ㄨ鐢熷伐鍏风瓑淇¤哺璩囩敘(ch菐n)鐨勯ⅷ(f膿ng)闅晱鎰熸€�锛屼絾缂洪粸涔熷緢鏄庨’锛氶亷鍒嗕緷璩翠簬澶栭儴瑭曠礆锛屽皪浜庣己涔忓閮ㄨ⿻绱氱殑鍏徃椤炲偟娆�(qu谩n)绲�(t菕ng)涓€绲︿簣100%鐨勯ⅷ(f膿ng)闅瑠(qu谩n)閲�锛岀己涔忔晱鎰熸€�;姝ゅ锛屼篃娌掓湁鑰冩叜鍒颁笉鍚岃硣鐢�(ch菐n)闁撶殑鐩搁棞(gu膩n)鎬с€�

銆€銆€2.鍏�(n猫i)閮ㄨ⿻绱氭硶

銆€銆€鍏�(n猫i)閮ㄨ⿻绱氭硶瑕佸幓鍟嗘キ(y猫)閵€琛屽缓绔嬪仴鍏ㄧ殑鍏�(n猫i)閮ㄨ⿻绱氶珨绯�锛岃嚜琛岄爯(y霉)娓仌绱勬鐜�(PD)銆侀仌绱勬悕澶辩巼(LGD)銆侀仌绱勯ⅷ(f膿ng)闅毚闇�(EAD)銆佹湡闄�(M)绛変俊鐢ㄩⅷ(f膿ng)闅洜绱�锛屽苟鏍规摎(j霉)濡備笅娆�(qu谩n)閲嶅叕寮忚▓绠楁瘡绛嗗偟闋呯殑淇＄敤棰�(f膿ng)闅硣鏈姹�(K)锛�

銆€銆€(1)鍏徃銆佷富娆�(qu谩n)鍙婂晢妤�(y猫)閵€琛屾毚闇�

銆€銆€鈶犻潪閬曠磩棰�(f膿ng)闅毚闇�

銆€?銆佽岸`绱勯ⅷ(f膿ng)闅毚闇�

銆€銆€(2)闆跺敭鏆撮湶

銆€銆€鏍规摎(j霉)灏嶅晢妤�(y猫)閵€琛屽収(n猫i)閮ㄨ⿻绱氶珨绯讳緷璩寸▼搴︾殑涓嶅悓锛屽収(n猫i)閮ㄨ⿻绱氭硶鍙堝垎鐐哄垵绱氭硶鍜岄珮绱氭硶鍏╃ó锛�

銆€?銆佷开璺銊掝€︾瑠铏(y猫)閵€琛岄亱鐢ㄨ嚜韬鎴惰⿻绱氫及瑷堟瘡涓€绛夌礆瀹㈡埗閬曠磩姒傜巼锛屽叾浠栭ⅷ(f膿ng)闅绱犻噰鐢ㄧ洠(ji膩n)绠＄暥(d膩ng)灞€鐨勪及姗�(j墨)鍊�;

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銆€銆€鍒濈礆娉曞拰楂樼礆娉曠殑鍗€(q奴)鍒嗗彧閬╃敤浜庨潪闆跺敭鏆撮湶锛屽皪浜庨浂鍞毚闇�锛屽彧瑕佸晢妤�(y猫)閵€琛屾焙瀹氬鏂藉収(n猫i)閮ㄨ⿻绱氭硶锛屽氨蹇呴爤鑷浼拌▓PD鍜孡GD.

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