鐐哄公鍔╁ぇ瀹舵洿濂界殑鍌欒€冪郴绲�(t菕ng)闆嗘垚闋�(xi脿ng)鐩鐞嗗伐绋嬪斧鑰冭│锛屽皬绶ㄧ壒鏁寸悊浜�“绯荤当(t菕ng)闆嗘垚闋�(xi脿ng)鐩鐞嗗伐绋嬪斧瑷�(j矛)绠楅鑰冮粸(di菐n)锛氫笁榛�(di菐n)浼扮畻”鐨勭浉闂�(gu膩n)鍏�(n猫i)瀹�锛屽笇鏈涘皪(du矛)澶у鑳藉鏈夋墍骞姪锛屽叿楂斿収(n猫i)瀹硅┏瑕�(ji脿n)涓嬫枃銆�

婧Θ鎻愮ず锛�鑰冪敓濡傛灉鎯充簡瑙ｆ垨鎿�(d膩n)蹇冭嚜宸遍尟(cu貌)閬�(gu貌)杌熻€冧腑闋�(xi脿ng)鑰冭│鐨勫牨(b脿o)鍚嶆檪(sh铆)闁�銆佽€冭│鏅�(sh铆)闁�銆佹垚绺�(j墨)鏌ヨ鏅�(sh铆)闁�銆佽瓑鏇�(sh奴)闋�(l菒ng)鍙栨檪(sh铆)闁撶瓑鏅�(sh铆)闁撶瘈(ji茅)榛�(di菐n)锛屽彲浣跨敤“  鍏嶈不(f猫i)闋�(y霉)绱勭煭淇℃彁閱�”鏈嶅嫏(w霉)锛岄爯(y霉)绱勬垚鍔�锛屽眴鏅�(sh铆)閲嶈鑰冭│绡€(ji茅)榛�(di菐n)鎴戝€戞渻(hu矛)浠ョ煭淇″舰寮忓強鏅�(sh铆)鎻愰啋鎮�锛�

娉細瑭茶€冮粸(di菐n)浣嶄簬銆婄郴绲�(t菕ng)闆嗘垚闋�(xi脿ng)鐩鐞嗗伐绋嬪斧鏁欑▼銆�(绗�2鐗�)308闋�(y猫)

瀹氱京锛�涓夐粸(di菐n)浼扮畻涔熷彨PERT浼扮畻娉�锛屽嵆 “瑷�(j矛)鍔冭⿻(p铆ng)浼板拰瀵╂煡鎶€琛�(sh霉)”銆傞€氶亷(gu貌)鑰冩叜浼扮畻涓殑涓嶇⒑瀹氭€у拰棰�(f膿ng)闅�(xi菐n)锛屽彲浠ユ彁楂樻椿鍕�(d貌ng)鎸佺簩(x霉)鏅�(sh铆)闁撲及绠楃殑婧�(zh菙n)纰烘€�銆侾ERT浣跨敤3绋及绠楀€间締(l谩i)鐣屽畾娲诲嫊(d貌ng)鎸佺簩(x霉)鏅�(sh铆)闁撶殑杩戜技鍗€(q奴)闁�锛屽嵆鍦ㄤ及绠楁椿鍕�(d貌ng)宸ユ湡鎴栨椿鍕�(d貌ng)鎴愭湰鏅�(sh铆)锛岃€冩叜涓夌ó鍙兘鐨勬儏娉�锛屽緱鍑�“鏈€妯�(l猫)瑙€宸ユ湡(tO)銆佹渶鎮茶宸ユ湡(tP)銆佹渶鍙兘宸ユ湡(tM)”锛屽啀鎿�(j霉)姝よ▓(j矛)绠楁湡鏈涘伐鏈�(骞冲潎宸ユ湡tE)銆�

鏈熸湜鍊艰▓(j矛)绠楀叕寮忥細

璨濆鍒嗗竷锛�

tE=(tP+4tM+tO)/6

cE=(tP+4tM+tO)/6

涓夎鍒嗗竷锛�(婧Θ鎻愮ず锛�璨濆鍒嗗竷姣斾笁瑙掑垎甯冪畻鐨勬洿绮剧⒑锛屽鏋滈鐩矑(m茅i)鏈夋槑纰鸿(shu艒)鏄庣敤涓夎鍒嗗竷锛屽墖榛樿獚(r猫n)鐢ㄨ矟濉斿垎甯冦€�)

tE=(tP+tM+tO)/3

cE=(tP+tM+tO)/3

鐢ㄤ笁榛�(di菐n)浼扮畻瑷�(j矛)绠楀嚭渚�(l谩i)鐨勫畬鎴愭煇娲诲嫊(d貌ng)鐨勬湡鏈涘伐鏈�(骞冲潎宸ユ湡)锛岄兘鍙湁50%鍙兘鎬�(姒傜巼)鍦ㄨ┎宸ユ湡鍏�(n猫i)瀹屽伐銆傜偤閫�(j矛n)涓€姝ヨ▓(j矛)绠椾笉鍚屾檪(sh铆)闁撳収(n猫i)锛屾垨涓嶅悓鏅�(sh铆)闁撹畩鍕�(d貌ng)鍗€(q奴)闁撳収(n猫i)鐨勫畬宸ユ鐜囷紝瑕佸紩鍏ユ澶垎甯冨湒閫�(j矛n)琛屽憟鐝�(xi脿n)锛屽湒褰㈢殑涓枔绶氭鏈€楂樺皪(du矛)鎳�(y墨ng)鏁�(sh霉)鍊间唬琛ㄦ湡鏈涘伐鏈�(骞冲潎宸ユ湡)锛岀敤±δ绻埗鍏朵粬鍧愭(bi膩o)鏁�(sh霉)鍊硷紝δ浠ｈ〃妯�(bi膩o)婧�(zh菙n)宸�銆�

妯�(bi膩o)婧�(zh菙n)宸強鏂瑰樊锛�妯�(bi膩o)婧�(zh菙n)宸�(Standard deviation)锛岀敤浠ヨ(shu艒)鏄庝及绠楀€�(鏈熸湜鎸佺簩(x霉)鏅�(sh铆)闁搕E)鐨勯洟鏁ｅ害鍜屼笉纰哄畾鍗€(q奴)闁�锛屽叾瑷�(j矛)绠楀叕寮忕偤: δ= (tP- tO)/6銆傛柟宸垏妯�(bi膩o)婧�(zh菙n)宸竴妯�锛屼篃鏄〃绀轰及绠楀€肩殑闆㈡暎搴�锛屽叾瑷�(j矛)绠楀叕寮忕偤妯�(bi膩o)婧�(zh菙n)宸殑骞虫柟锛屽嵆鏂瑰樊=δ²

婧Θ鎻愮ず锛�澶氬€�(g猫)娲诲嫊(d貌ng)鏅�(sh铆)锛屾(bi膩o)婧�(zh菙n)宸笉鑳界洿鎺ョ浉鍔�锛岃閫氶亷(gu貌)鏂瑰樊鐩稿姞锛屾鏅�(sh铆)妯�(bi膩o)婧�(zh菙n)宸偤鍚勬椿鍕�(d貌ng)鐨勬柟宸箣鍜屽啀闁�(k膩i)骞虫柟銆�

瀹屽伐姒傜巼瑷�(j矛)绠楋細瑷樹綇3鍊�(g猫)鏁�(sh霉)瀛�——68%銆�95%锛�99%銆�

1.濡傛灉鐢�1鍊�(g猫)妯�(bi膩o)婧�(zh菙n)宸�(±1δ)浼扮畻宸ユ湡锛屼换鍕�(w霉)鎴栨椿鍕�(d貌ng)鍦�“骞冲潎宸ユ湡±1δ”鍏�(n猫i)瀹屽伐鐨勬鐜囩殑姒傜巼鏄�68.26%;

2.濡傛灉鐢�2鍊�(g猫)妯�(bi膩o)婧�(zh菙n)宸�(±2δ)浼扮畻宸ユ湡锛屼换鍕�(w霉)鎴栨椿鍕�(d貌ng)鍦�“骞冲潎宸ユ湡±2δ”鍏�(n猫i)瀹屽伐鐨勬鐜�锛屾鐜囨槸95.46%;

3.濡傛灉鐢�3鍊�(g猫)妯�(bi膩o)婧�(zh菙n)宸�(±3δ)浼扮畻宸ユ湡锛屼换鍕�(w霉)鎴栨椿鍕�(d貌ng)鍦ㄥ氨鏄�“骞冲潎宸ユ湡±3δ”鍏�(n猫i)瀹屽伐鐨勬鐜�锛屾鐜囨槸99.73%;

澶氬€�(g猫)娲诲嫊(d貌ng)瑷�(j矛)绠楋細

鐭ラ亾鍠€�(g猫)娲诲嫊(d貌ng)宸ユ湡鑸囨鐜囧悗锛屾垜鍊戝氨鍙互鏍规摎(j霉)绲﹀嚭澶氬€�(g猫)娲诲嫊(d貌ng)鐨則P銆乼M銆乼O锛屾眰澶氬€�(g猫)娲诲嫊(d貌ng)鍦ㄧ郸瀹氭檪(sh铆)闁撳収(n猫i)瀹屽伐姒傜巼銆�

姣斿瑷�(j矛)绠楀悓涓€姊濋棞(gu膩n)閸佃矾寰戜笂鍏ㄩ儴娲诲嫊(d貌ng)(涓嶅惈鎻愬墠鑸囨化鍚庨噺)鐨勫伐鏈熻垏姒傜巼銆傞€欐檪(sh铆)闇€瑕佽▓(j矛)绠楀嚭“澶氬€�(g猫)娲诲嫊(d貌ng)鐨勫钩鍧囧伐鏈熻垏澶氭椿鍕�(d貌ng)鐨勬(bi膩o)婧�(zh菙n)宸�”锛屽叾涓娲诲嫊(d貌ng)鐨勫钩鍧囧伐鏈熷氨鏄�“娲诲嫊(d貌ng)骞冲潎宸ユ湡涔嬪拰”锛屾(bi膩o)婧�(zh菙n)宸槸“灏�(du矛)澶氭椿鍕�(d貌ng)鏂瑰樊涔嬪拰绠楁牴铏�(h脿o)”锛�

骞冲潎宸ユ湡=娲诲嫊(d貌ng)骞冲潎宸ユ湡涔嬪拰=tE1+tE2+tE3.....tEn

妯�(bi膩o)婧�(zh菙n)宸�=

鑰冨墠娌栧埡璩囨枡锛�姝峰勾鐪熼銆�楂橀牷鑰冮粸(di菐n)銆�鍒烽搴�(k霉)鍙粸(di菐n)鎿�鍏嶈不(f猫i)涓嬭級銆�

浠ヤ笂灏辨槸“绯荤当(t菕ng)闆嗘垚闋�(xi脿ng)鐩鐞嗗伐绋嬪斧瑷�(j矛)绠楅鑰冮粸(di菐n)锛氫笁榛�(di菐n)浼扮畻”鐨勫収(n猫i)瀹逛簡锛屽笇鏈涙湰鏂囧収(n猫i)瀹瑰皪(du矛)澶у鑳藉鏈夋墍骞姪銆傛韩棣ㄦ彁绀猴細鐐哄公鍔╁悇浣嶈€冪敓鏇村ソ鍦板倷鑰冭粺鑰冧腑闋�(xi脿ng)鑰冭│锛岀挵(hu谩n)鐞冪恫(w菐ng)鏍＄偤澶у鐗规剰涓婂偝浜嗗緢澶氬倷鑰冭硣鏂欙紝濡傛骞寸湡椤�銆佹ā鎿│椤岃垏绛旀瑙ｆ瀽銆佽€冭│鎶€宸х瓑鍌欒€冭硣鏂�锛岃€冪敓鍙粸(di菐n)鎿婁笅鏂�“鍏嶈不(f猫i)涓嬭級”閫�(j矛n)琛岄牁(l菒ng)鍙栧摝锛�