绯荤当(t菕ng)闆嗘垚闋呯洰绠$悊宸ョ▼甯▓绠楅鑰冮粸锛氫笁榛炰及绠�


鐐哄公鍔╁ぇ瀹舵洿濂界殑鍌欒€冪郴绲�(t菕ng)闆嗘垚闋呯洰绠$悊宸ョ▼甯€冭│锛屽皬绶ㄧ壒鏁寸悊浜�“绯荤当(t菕ng)闆嗘垚闋呯洰绠$悊宸ョ▼甯▓绠楅鑰冮粸锛氫笁榛炰及绠�”鐨勭浉闂滃収(n猫i)瀹�锛屽笇鏈涘皪澶у鑳藉鏈夋墍骞姪锛屽叿楂斿収(n猫i)瀹硅┏瑕嬩笅鏂�銆�
婧Θ鎻愮ず锛�鑰冪敓濡傛灉鎯充簡瑙f垨鎿斿績鑷繁閷亷杌熻€冧腑闋呰€冭│鐨勫牨鍚嶆檪闁撱€佽€冭│鏅傞枔銆佹垚绺炬煡瑭㈡檪闁�銆佽瓑鏇搁牁鍙栨檪闁撶瓑鏅傞枔绡€(ji茅)榛烇紝鍙娇鐢�“ 鍏嶈不闋愮磩鐭俊鎻愰啋”鏈嶅嫏锛岄爯绱勬垚鍔燂紝灞嗘檪閲嶈鑰冭│绡€(ji茅)榛炴垜鍊戞渻浠ョ煭淇″舰寮忓強鏅傛彁閱掓偍锛�
娉細瑭茶€冮粸浣嶄簬銆婄郴绲�(t菕ng)闆嗘垚闋呯洰绠$悊宸ョ▼甯暀绋嬨€�(绗�2鐗�)308闋�
瀹氱京锛�涓夐粸浼扮畻涔熷彨PERT浼扮畻娉曪紝鍗� “瑷堝妰瑭曚及鍜屽鏌ユ妧琛�”銆傞€氶亷鑰冩叜浼扮畻涓殑涓嶇⒑瀹氭€у拰棰ㄩ毆锛屽彲浠ユ彁楂樻椿鍕曟寔绾�(x霉)鏅傞枔浼扮畻鐨勬簴纰烘€с€侾ERT浣跨敤3绋及绠楀€间締鐣屽畾娲诲嫊鎸佺簩(x霉)鏅傞枔鐨勮繎浼煎崁(q奴)闁�锛屽嵆鍦ㄤ及绠楁椿鍕曞伐鏈熸垨娲诲嫊鎴愭湰鏅�锛岃€冩叜涓夌ó鍙兘鐨勬儏娉�锛屽緱鍑�“鏈€妯傝宸ユ湡(tO)銆佹渶鎮茶宸ユ湡(tP)銆佹渶鍙兘宸ユ湡(tM)”锛屽啀鎿�(j霉)姝よ▓绠楁湡鏈涘伐鏈�(骞冲潎宸ユ湡tE)銆�
鏈熸湜鍊艰▓绠楀叕寮忥細
璨濆鍒嗗竷锛�
tE=(tP+4tM+tO)/6
cE=(tP+4tM+tO)/6
涓夎鍒嗗竷锛�(婧Θ鎻愮ず锛�璨濆鍒嗗竷姣斾笁瑙掑垎甯冪畻鐨勬洿绮剧⒑锛屽鏋滈鐩矑鏈夋槑纰鸿鏄庣敤涓夎鍒嗗竷锛屽墖榛樿獚鐢ㄨ矟濉斿垎甯�銆�)
tE=(tP+tM+tO)/3
cE=(tP+tM+tO)/3
鐢ㄤ笁榛炰及绠楄▓绠楀嚭渚嗙殑瀹屾垚鏌愭椿鍕曠殑鏈熸湜宸ユ湡(骞冲潎宸ユ湡)锛岄兘鍙湁50%鍙兘鎬�(姒傜巼)鍦ㄨ┎宸ユ湡鍏�(n猫i)瀹屽伐銆傜偤閫蹭竴姝ヨ▓绠椾笉鍚屾檪闁撳収(n猫i)锛屾垨涓嶅悓鏅傞枔璁婂嫊鍗€(q奴)闁撳収(n猫i)鐨勫畬宸ユ鐜囷紝瑕佸紩鍏ユ澶垎甯冨湒閫茶鍛堢従(xi脿n)锛屽湒褰㈢殑涓枔绶氭鏈€楂樺皪鎳夋暩(sh霉)鍊间唬琛ㄦ湡鏈涘伐鏈�(骞冲潎宸ユ湡)锛岀敤±δ绻埗鍏朵粬鍧愭鏁�(sh霉)鍊�锛�δ浠h〃妯欐簴宸€�
妯欐簴宸強鏂瑰樊锛�妯欐簴宸�(Standard deviation)锛岀敤浠ヨ鏄庝及绠楀€�(鏈熸湜鎸佺簩(x霉)鏅傞枔tE)鐨勯洟鏁e害鍜屼笉纰哄畾鍗€(q奴)闁擄紝鍏惰▓绠楀叕寮忕偤: δ= (tP- tO)/6銆傛柟宸垏妯欐簴宸竴妯o紝涔熸槸琛ㄧず浼扮畻鍊肩殑闆㈡暎搴�锛屽叾瑷堢畻鍏紡鐐烘婧栧樊鐨勫钩鏂�锛屽嵆鏂瑰樊=δ²
婧Θ鎻愮ず锛�澶氬€嬫椿鍕曟檪锛屾婧栧樊涓嶈兘鐩存帴鐩稿姞锛岃閫氶亷鏂瑰樊鐩稿姞锛屾鏅傛婧栧樊鐐哄悇娲诲嫊鐨勬柟宸箣鍜屽啀闁嬪钩鏂�銆�
瀹屽伐姒傜巼瑷堢畻锛氳浣�3鍊嬫暩(sh霉)瀛�——68%銆�95%锛�99%銆�
1.濡傛灉鐢�1鍊嬫婧栧樊(±1δ)浼扮畻宸ユ湡锛屼换鍕欐垨娲诲嫊鍦�“骞冲潎宸ユ湡±1δ”鍏�(n猫i)瀹屽伐鐨勬鐜囩殑姒傜巼鏄�68.26%;
2.濡傛灉鐢�2鍊嬫婧栧樊(±2δ)浼扮畻宸ユ湡锛屼换鍕欐垨娲诲嫊鍦�“骞冲潎宸ユ湡±2δ”鍏�(n猫i)瀹屽伐鐨勬鐜�锛屾鐜囨槸95.46%;
3.濡傛灉鐢�3鍊嬫婧栧樊(±3δ)浼扮畻宸ユ湡锛屼换鍕欐垨娲诲嫊鍦ㄥ氨鏄�“骞冲潎宸ユ湡±3δ”鍏�(n猫i)瀹屽伐鐨勬鐜�锛屾鐜囨槸99.73%;
澶氬€嬫椿鍕曡▓绠楋細
鐭ラ亾鍠€嬫椿鍕曞伐鏈熻垏姒傜巼鍚庯紝鎴戝€戝氨鍙互鏍规摎(j霉)绲﹀嚭澶氬€嬫椿鍕曠殑tP銆乼M銆乼O锛屾眰澶氬€嬫椿鍕曞湪绲﹀畾鏅傞枔鍏�(n猫i)瀹屽伐姒傜巼銆�
姣斿瑷堢畻鍚屼竴姊濋棞閸佃矾寰戜笂鍏ㄩ儴娲诲嫊(涓嶅惈鎻愬墠鑸囨化鍚庨噺)鐨勫伐鏈熻垏姒傜巼銆傞€欐檪闇€瑕佽▓绠楀嚭“澶氬€嬫椿鍕曠殑骞冲潎宸ユ湡鑸囧娲诲嫊鐨勬婧栧樊”锛屽叾涓娲诲嫊鐨勫钩鍧囧伐鏈熷氨鏄�“娲诲嫊骞冲潎宸ユ湡涔嬪拰”锛屾婧栧樊鏄�“灏嶅娲诲嫊鏂瑰樊涔嬪拰绠楁牴铏�”锛�
骞冲潎宸ユ湡=娲诲嫊骞冲潎宸ユ湡涔嬪拰=tE1+tE2+tE3.....tEn
妯欐簴宸�=

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